Updated on 19th July 2017:
I predicted with appropriate reasons why I think CRS will come down to 350. Recently, CRS came down to 413 then the changes as per IRCC came into effect and new CRS went up to 449 and then followed by 440.
But at the same time, OINP issued Nomination of Interest for selected NOCs even with 325 points. That means, CIC knows that there is not much steam left above 400 and hence they have started giving NOI to people below 400 also.
And I think, this is a rational and sane thing to do rather than lowering the whole 400 points cut off.
Going forward, the 400 point cutoff will also come down but in effect it has already fell below 400.
Yes, it will drop to 350. Here is why.
It’s all about supply and demand. I want to give few stats here.
Today is 17th April, on this date, CIC has already issued ITAs which is equal to last 2 yearly average. It shows that CIC has confidence in this immigration program and they are confident in it.
Here is the data of total candidates of 49,654. These many candidates are in pool and awaiting ITAs.
If we expect 70% conversion ratio from ITA to PR, than CIC will have to issue more than 1,04,000 ITAs yearly. It boils down to more than 8700 ITAs monthly. according to current rate, CIC is consistently issuing 9000 ITAs a month.
To complete the target, more than 71,000 yet to be issued. The current pool has only 10,000 Candidates having scores above 400 and only 22,000 Candidates having scores above 350.
I am sure that new candidates will be added every week, but even if they are added, I don’t think CIC will be able to meet their yearly target this year also.
In previous 2 years, CIC was testing their Immigration program and hence their were not very aggressive in taking new immigrants. They ensured to get immigrants who had a high probability of succeeding in Canada.
So taking these things into consideration, I am very sure that we will see CRS 350 with in 6–8 months. If more and more candidates are added to suffice the demands of CIC and those will be more than 370-380 scores than it is hard to see 350.
But, I am not seeing it happening anytime soon.
Then, What is the catch??
The catch is, you will be eligible for express entry only if you have 67 points out of 100 points in Eligibility. It takes CLB 9 English, 3 Years work Experience and age below 35 to score 67. Most of the candidates will not be able to make 67 and hence will be out of the race.
Note: I haven’t considered new changes coming in from June.